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How good is the iPhone for the mobile web economy?
6 Jul 2010, 12:27 pm
Apple iPhone 4 - good for Apple, bad for Apple PR, bad for mobile operators, good for HTML5 developers. And the customers? Well they're not exactly fully paid-up members of the Apple fan club either, according to a new report on the mobile web.
Photo by Sroown on Flickr. Some rights reserved The unique selling point of the iPhone - it's App Store - will dwindle in appeal within two years as HTML5 becomes the standard for browsers and mobile web applications become increasingly feature-rich, says the 2010 Mobile Web Usage Forecast by mobile internet firm Volantis. And it will be gaming and social networking that provide the biggest pull towards the mobile web, the YouGov poll of over 4,000 US and UK consumers aged 18+ found. Fifty-five percent of UK-based respondents said social networking would encourage them to use the mobile web more, while 17% were keen to access games on their mobiles. Those findings certainly correlate with this year's GSMA Mobile Media Metrics report which found that Facebook accounted for almost half of the 4.8bn minutes UK folk spent browsing the mobile web in December 2009. Over a third (38%) of all respondents felt that an iPhone was inconsequential as part of having a good mobile web experience, with just one in ten Americans thinking that an iPhone was essential to enjoy the mobile internet. Volantis chief executive Mark Watson said the findings were good news for developers turned off by Apple's more restrictive approach to mobile apps: "The arrival of HTML5 will release developers from the constraints of Flash, making the user experience more varied and allowing the development of entertainment, lifestyle and business apps which are optimised to provide the same experience across all devices. Freeing developers from having to focus on either 'Apple' or 'Other' applications will further drive the mobile web market. "Mobile internet users want compelling web experiences that will allow them quick and seamless access to the services that matter to them most," he said. "With the advancement of HTML5 the limitations of web apps for mobile are declining; inch by inch, function by function, handsets are becoming more web accessible." In January this year, Gartner predicted mobile app downloads would surpass 21.6bn by 2013. By the same year, the analyst said, mobile phones would replace PCs as the most common device for web access. An unrelated report by Denmark-based Strand Consult say Apple's latest mobile offering is "really bad news" for carriers, warning that mobile operators could well be issuing profit warnings due to large subsidies for the iPhone 4. Invoking its almost countercultural September 2009 report, The Moment of Truth - a Portrait of the iPhone, Strand Consult argue that any evaluation of iPhone 4 success should be based on six parameters: • How does the iPhone 4 differ compared to previous iPhone models? • Does the iPhone 4 have a new form factor that makes it attractive to new customer segments that did not purchase previous iPhone models due to the design? • Which customers will primarily purchase the new iPhone 4, new customers or existing iPhone customers that want the new model? • How will a massive upgrade of the iPhone base influence the economy of operators that have large customer bases that want a new subsidised iPhone 4? • What will happen with all the old iPhones when people purchase a new iPhone 4? Will they destroy them, or will they try to sell them to friends and family? • How big is the iPhone market? Is it so big that it deserves the uncritical attention it is receiving? On each of these scores, Strand Consult contends, the iPhone 4 leaves much to be desired from mobile operators, while leaving the door open for mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) to deal in SIM-only strategies.
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